xG and Possession Explained: How to Read Your Match Stats
What expected goals (xG) and possession really tell you about a football match, and how to use them in My Football Game to fix your tactics and win more.
By Paulo · 2026-10-20 · 6 min read
The score does not tell the whole story
A 1-0 win can be a dominant performance or a lucky smash-and-grab. Professional analysts use two numbers to tell the difference: expected goals (xG) and possession. My Football Game shows both live during every match, minute by minute, so you can manage like an analyst.
What is xG?
Expected goals measures the quality of chances. Every shot gets a value between 0 and 1: the probability that an average player scores from that situation. A tap-in from two yards might be 0.6 or more; a long-range effort might be 0.03. Add up every shot and you get a team's xG for the match.
In My Football Game, xG includes open-play shots, free kicks, corners and penalties, so set pieces show up in the numbers too.
What is possession?
Possession is the share of the match each team had the ball. It shows who controlled the game, but not who created danger. A team with 35% possession can still win the xG battle by attacking quickly when it gets the ball.
Reading the four combinations
- High possession, high xG — you dominated. Keep the setup.
- High possession, low xG — you had the ball but did nothing with it. Try a more attacking mentality or more forwards.
- Low possession, high xG — a counter-attacking performance that worked. Fine against stronger clubs.
- Low possession, low xG — you were outplayed. Look at your midfield and formation before the next match.
Use xG to judge results fairly
If you lose 1-0 but won the xG 2.1 to 0.6, the tactics worked and the finishing let you down. Do not tear up the plan. If you win 2-1 but lost the xG 0.8 to 2.4, you were lucky, and the next match will probably punish the same setup.
Over a full season, xG predicts the table better than early results do. Use it to make calm decisions instead of panicking after one bad result. Read our tactics guide for what to change, then try it in a live match.